Flacco and defense help Ravens crush Eagles; McNabb benched

Football Betting Lines

11/24/2008 - Baltimore, MD (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Joe Flacco threw for 183 yards and two touchdowns as the Baltimore Ravens won a lopsided 36-7 contest with the Philadelphia Eagles at M&T Bank Stadium.

Flacco completed 12-of-26 passes in the game for the Ravens (7-4), who have won five of six. Le'Ron McClain ran for 88 yards and a touchdown on 18 carries, and Mark Clayton had two catches for 76 yards and a touchdown. Ed Reed had two interceptions, including a back-breaking 108-yard touchdown return in the fourth quarter.

"Our football team (is) fighting through adversity, finding a way to overcome mistakes and overcome a very difficult opponent," Ravens head coach John Harbaugh said. "Taking over in the fourth quarter. I think that's something any coach would be proud of."

The 108-yard return set a new NFL record for longest interception return, breaking Reed's old record of 106 yards.

Donovan McNabb, Philadelphia's franchise quarterback of 10 seasons, was benched after a first half in which he threw for just 59 yards on 8- of-18 passing, with two interceptions and a fumble. Kevin Kolb replaced him at halftime and didn't fare much better, completing 10-of-23 passes for 73 yards and two interceptions for Philadelphia (5-5-1), which is winless in its last three contests. DeSean Jackson caught five passes for 47 yards.

"At halftime, I heard about the move from our quarterbacks coach, Pat Shurmur," McNabb said. "My first reaction was 'Wow.' Then, I knew I had to go along with it, and I tried to get our guys to rally behind Kevin Kolb."

Eagles head coach Andy Reid did not give an indication as to whether McNabb or Kolb would start Philadelphia's game Thursday against Arizona.

The biggest difference in the game was turnovers, where the Eagles had five, compared to zero for Baltimore.

"Obviously, the QB is a big part of the football team, but it's important that we feed off of each other, and we all pick our games up," Reid said. "And we've seen that done around here before, and I expect it to happen again."

After a scoreless first quarter, a tripping penalty added 10 yards to a Baltimore punt return, putting the Ravens at the Eagles 28-yard line with 4 1/2 minutes left in the second. After gaining only two yards, Matt Stover hit a 44-yard field goal to put the game's first points on the board.

McNabb's next pass was intercepted -- his third turnover of the game -- by Reed, giving the Ravens the ball at the Eagles' six. On 3rd-and-goal from the one, Daniel Wilcox made a spectacular one-handed catch in the end zone, giving Baltimore a 10-0 with just under two minutes left in the half.

But Philadelphia would get on the board before the half ended, as Quintin Demps returned the ensuing kick 100 yards right up the middle of the field for a touchdown, accounting for the 10-7 halftime margin.

Baltimore took a 12-7 lead with 6:01 left in the third, as Jameel McClain blocked a punt, forcing the ball out of the end zone for a safety.

Stover's 42-yard field goal off an interception with 14:52 left in the game gave Baltimore an eight-point lead.

Just over three minutes later, Clayton beat two Eagles defenders on a slant play, and Flacco found him for a 53-yard touchdown to make it 22-7.

Philadelphia looked to get back into the game, as Kolb drove the Eagles to Baltimore's one-yard line. But Reed intercepted another pass, and this time he brought it back 108 yards for the touchdown down the right sideline, sealing the win for Baltimore halfway through the fourth.

"Haruki (Nakamura) pointed out that (Eagles wide receiver Reggie Brown) was on the end of the line, and it's usually a tight end, so we kinda knew it wasn't going to be a run to that side," Reed said of the play on which he returned the interception. "I was watching (Brown's) feet when he was in the huddle just to find out where he was going. Once he went across the field it was pretty simple from there. Just keep trailing it. The quarterback never even saw me come from behind."

McClain added a one-yard touchdown in the final minutes for the Ravens to cap the scoring.

Game Notes

Demps' touchdown return was the first on a kickoff for the Eagles since 2001...Stover has converted 376 consecutive extra points, an NFL record. He has not missed an extra point since 1996...This is the first time the Ravens have beaten the Eagles since moving from Cleveland...Harbaugh served as Philadelphia's special teams coordinator/defensive backs coach from 1998-2007.

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Super Bowl XLIII Betting Odds

Super Bowl XLIII, the Arizona Cardinals and the Pittsburgh Steelers.

Super Bowl XLIII is now set, the Arizona Cardinals and the Pittsburgh Steelers will meet each other on February 1st in Tampa's Raymond James Stadium to battle it out for the coveted Lombardi Trophy. The game kicks off at 6:00pm ET on NBC with announcers Al Michaels and John Madden covering the on-field action. Super Bowl XLIII betting odds at online bookmaker MySportsbook.com have the Steelers listed as an early -6.5 against the spread favorite.Super Bowl XLIII Betting Odds

Pittsburgh earned their passage to the big game by beating their division rival, the Baltimore Ravens, 23-14 in yesterday's AFC Championship Game. The Steelers jumped on Baltimore early, building a 13-0 first half lead, and never let up on their way to a fairly easy win. Although the Ravens did close to within two points in the fourth quarter, it never appeared as if they had enough offense to pull off the upset.

The Steelers dominating defense held Baltimore to a total of 198 yards while allowing them to convert just three third downs in 13 attempts. Pittsburgh also forced quarterback Joe Flacco into three interceptions, one of which safety Troy Polamalu returned fourty yards for a touchdown.

The Cardinals, by far the playoff team with the longest odds to reach Super Bowl XLIII, did so yesterday with a 32-25 upset of the Philadelphia Eagles in the NFC Championship. Arizona charged out of the gates and built a 24-6 halftime lead that had the Eagles venerable defense reeling. Quarterback Kurt Warner and wide receiver Larry Fitzgerald did most of the damage, connecting on three first half touchdowns.

Arizona, however, could not sustain their momentum and the Eagles took a 25-24 with 10:45 left to play in the fourth. The Cardinals, with the franchise's first Super Bowl appearance hanging in the balance, mounted a fourteen play, 72 yard touchdown drive that consumed 7:52 off the clock. Warner hit running back Tim Hightower on a short screen for the go-ahead, game clinching score that will forever live in Cardinal infamy.

MySportsbook.com's Super Bowl XLIII Betting Odds:

Pittsburgh Steelers -6.5 (-110), Over 46.5 (-110), -260 (Money line)

Arizona Cardinals +6.5 (-110), Under 46.5 (-110), +220 (Money line)

Matt Foust won both of his conference championship plays yesterday and he is ready to serve up plenty of Super Bowl action. Each individual play costs $15.00, however, MySportsbook.com recommends purchasing Matt's NFL Playoff Package which includes all of Matt's Super Bowl props and picks from just $45.00.

Get free Super Bowl XLIII Betting from top rated online sportsbook MySportsbook.com. Mysportsbook.com online Super Bowl betting with credit cards

How to bet pro football

There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.

These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.

Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.

Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.

Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.

Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.

The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?

To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.

Home vs. Away Teams

Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.

Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.

Price ranges

Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.

The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.

Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.

Playoff teams

It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.

Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.

This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.

Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.

Scoring defense and scoring offense

Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.

Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.

There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.

The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.

Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.

Scoring margin

An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.

In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.

Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.

In sum

Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.

The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.

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