Busch, Gibbs address sponsorship change

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11/11/2011 - Avondale, AZ (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - NASCAR driver Kyle Busch continued to be apologetic for intentionally wrecking Ron Hornaday Jr. in last week's Camping World Truck Series race at Texas Motor Speedway.

Since NASCAR suspended him from last weekend's Nationwide and Sprint Cup Series races at Texas, Busch spoke with reporters for the first time on Friday at Phoenix International Raceway. The sanctioning body took further action on Monday by fining Busch $50,000 and placing him on probation for the remainder of the year.

Mars Inc. and its M&M's brand, which serves as the primary sponsor of Busch's No.18 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota team, announced this week that it would not sponsor Busch's efforts in Sunday's Sprint Cup race at Phoenix as well as the November 20 season-finale at Homestead, FL.

"As a proud member of the racing community, Mars and the M&M's brand strongly support the partnership we have with Joe Gibbs Racing and are committed to NASCAR. Yet, Kyle's recent actions are unacceptable and do not reflect the values of Mars," Debra A. Sandler, who is the chief consumer officer of Mars Chocolate North America, said in a statement released on Thursday. "While we do not condone Kyle's recent actions, we do believe that he has shown remorse and has expressed a desire to change. We believe our decision will have a positive impact on Kyle and will help him return next season ready to win."

JGR announced that its longtime sponsor, Interstate Batteries, will be featured on the No.18 car at Phoenix and Homestead. Mars will continue its sponsorship with Busch's team during the 2012 season.

After being parked at Texas, Busch dropped from seventh to 11th in the Chase for the Sprint Cup championship point standings. He has been mathematically eliminated from title contention, as he presently trails leader Carl Edwards by 100 points.

"Obviously, this has been quite a trying week for myself and my wife [Samantha] and everybody at M&M's, Joe Gibbs Racing, Kyle Busch Motorsports and Interstate Batteries, all of the above," Busch said. "I'm upmost apologetic to everybody that's been having to go through this situation, and there's no one to blame but myself."

Busch said he had a telephone conversation with Hornaday days after the truck race. He quipped that he "is still invited to [Hornaday's] house."

Team owner Joe Gibbs joined Busch during the press conference, which was held prior to the first Sprint Cup practice held on the newly repaved and reconfigured one-mile Phoenix track.

"Joe has been a huge supporter of mine through all of this, and I can't say enough about him, all the folks at JGR and all the guys on my M&M's team, and we're here to say that we want to learn from this and we'll move on," Busch added.

Gibbs noted that Busch is facing penalties from JGR, including a fine. He would not comment on the details of the forthcoming penalties. Busch will not be relieved from his driving duties with the team after this season concludes.

"Kyle's penalties are going to be substantial," Gibbs said. "We also have other actions that are going to be in place. There will be other financial penalties and stuff that we're working through, and we'll continue to do that as we go forward through this process."

Busch is not competing in Saturday's Nationwide race at Phoenix. Joey Logano was originally scheduled to drive JGR's No.18 car for that event. Busch will not run in the Nationwide season-ending race at Homestead as well.

There had been speculation that Z-Line Designs, the primary sponsor of Busch's Nationwide team, asked JGR to replace Busch with Denny Hamlin in the Homestead race.

"I take the responsibility for a lot of that, because we were kind of wanting to go for the next two races to let Kyle focus on Cup, and so a lot of that came from the race team," Gibbs said.

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Sportsbook Betting Lines

Who Makes the Sportsbook Betting Lines?

Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world’s premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process. Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error.

“You either have a passion for it or you don’t,” Seba said.

“The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations. People think it’s much more complicated, but it’s not. “

What are the Football Betting Lines Trying to Accomplish?

There is a common misconception that point spreads represent the oddsmakers’ prediction of how many points the favorite will win by. That is not the case at all – their intent is NOT to evenly split the ATS result between the teams; rather, their goal is to attract equal betting action on both sides. Stated another way, they want to create a line that half the people find appealing to bet one way while the other half find it appealing to bet the other way (known as ‘dividing the action’).

Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig – typically $11 bet to win $10).

How the Opening Line Is Made

The opening line is the first line created by the oddsmakers, which is then sent out to sportsbooks. Of course there is an entire method to the madness on how the opening line is created. Seba explained that it all starts with each oddsmaker creating a line on each game based upon their own personal approach. This usually includes having up-to-date power ratings on each team.

Power ratings are the oddsmaker’s value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a "preliminary" pointspread on an upcoming game. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team's power rating are key player injuries and player trades.

Once a game’s power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team's most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team’s local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game.

Since the oddsmaker’s ultimate goal is equally dividing the sports betting action, public perception and sportsbook betting patterns must be taken into account. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football betting team such as USC. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public’s expected USC bias.

The last step in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line "feels right." This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture.

A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line.

Why Sports Betting Lines Change

Once the opening line is released by LVSC, the individual sportsbooks decide if they want to make any adjustments before offering it to the public. Reasons for such adjustments include:

Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game

Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)

The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action.

Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game.

For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite.

Moving the line is the oddsmaker's effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor’s decision. Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an "adjusted line."

“The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides,” Seba said. “We’re not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we’re trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor). If we’ve done that, we’ve done our job.”

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