2009 Ohio Valley Conference Tournament Preview

NCAA Basketball Betting Lines

03/02/2009 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Tuesday night marks the beginning of the Ohio Valley Conference Tournament, and headlining this year's postseason action is the surprising Tennessee-Martin Skyhawks. The Skyhawks rattled off a 14-4 mark in league play, claiming their first-ever OVC regular-season title. Finishing second to UT-Martin was the OVC defending champion Austin Peay Governors, who finished this season with a 13-5 mark in league play. Also finishing with a 13-5 ledger was the Murray State Racers. The Racers were one of the hottest teams in the conference down the stretch, and although the team is the third seed in this tournament, this is still a very dangerous group.

One of the big surprises this season, other than UT-Martin, was the exciting play of the Morehead State Eagles, as they soared to a 12-6 mark in league play. The team definitely stumbled down the stretch, but still managed the fourth seed and a home matchup against the fifth-seeded Eastern Kentucky Colonels. The Colonels posted a respectable 10-8 mark in conference play, but the team is definitely a step below the top four seeds in this tournament. A dark horse in this OVC postseason could be the sixth-seeded Tennessee State Tigers. The Tigers only finished 9-9 in conference action, but were one of, if not the hottest team in the league down the stretch. Eastern Illinois stumbled into the postseason with an 8-10 mark and the seventh spot in the tournament, while the Tennessee Tech Golden Eagles defeated Jacksonville State, 91-74, to grab the final spot in this year's bracket.

The Golden Eagles' prize for getting past the Gamecocks and into the postseason is a date with the lethal Lester Hudson and the Tennessee-Martin Skyhawks in the first round of play. The Skyhawks' tremendous season has plenty to do with the play of Hudson, who is currently second in the nation with 26.6 ppg. However, Hudson does much more than just score point at a rapid pace. The guard is also leading the team in rebounds (7.7 rpg), assists (121) and steals (70). Hudson is the top player on a UT-Martin squad that is extremely dangerous, averaging a conference best 79.1 ppg. Marquis Weddle, who scored 30 points in the team's season-finale win over Morehead State is the only other player posting double figures, as the guard is contributing 14.5 ppg. The win over the Eagles was the second straight victory for UT-Martin, which heads into this matchup with a strong 11-3 mark at home.

As for the Golden Eagles, they come into this matchup on a high note, defeating Jacksonville State soundly, 91-74. However, the win was the first for the team in the entire month of February, snapping a seven-game slide. Tennessee Tech does possess some solid scorers however, as the team is netting 73.6 ppg on the year, which is good enough for third in the OVC. Daniel Northern has proven to be one of the best frontcourt players in the league and is posting 12.4 ppg and a team-best 8.6 rpg. Frank Davis, who is shooting a strong 43.0 percent from behind the arc, is netting 10.1 points, while Will Bynum is also chipping in 10.1 ppg.

The second contest in the first round will be the defending champion Austin Peay Governors against the seventh-seeded Eastern Illinois Panthers. The Govs were able to taste OVC success last season, and earned a spot in the NCAA Tournament. Although the team was bounced in the first game against Texas, the Govs have every intention on returning to the Big Dance. To do so however, the team must square off against EIU first. Austin Peay closed out its regular season with three wins in its last four games, and is led by the tandem of Drake Reed and Wes Channels. Reed has been a strong presence in the paint, netting 22.2 4ppg, while also grabbing 7.7 rpg. As for Channels, he has been a solid floor general, posting 16.8 ppg, to go along with a team-best 93 assists.

The Panthers will surely have their hands full in this matchup, especially since the team finished last in the OVC with 64.9 ppg. On top of their inability to score points, the Panthers won just three times on the road this season, and come into this contest with six losses in their last seven games. Romain Martin has been the only true bright spot for the Panthers, netting 15.2 ppg, but for EIU to grab a victory in this contest, the guard is going to have to have the game of his life and get plenty of help.

The third-seeded Murray State Racers will open up at home against the sixth- seeded Tennessee State Tigers. The Racers are an interesting team, as coach Bill Kennedy's squad relies mainly on tough defensive play in a conference that is filled with high-scoring teams. Murray State finished first in the OVC in scoring defense, holding opponents to just 62.7 ppg, which was three points better than the team in second, Eastern Kentucky. Murray State might not be as flashy as UT-Martin, but the team is just as hot, winning seven of its last eight games, finishing the year with a 13-5 OVC record. Where the team will likely have trouble is at the offensive end of the floor, as the Racers do not possess a go-to weapon. Danero Thomas is pacing the team with 12.2 ppg, while Isacc Miles is contributing 10.4 ppg and 109 assists.

The Racers by no means get an easy matchup, as the team will be pitted against a Tennessee State team that won its last six games to get to this point. The Tigers are on the other end of the spectrum in terms of defensive play however, as the team finished ninth in the OVC in scoring defense, as opponents have pounded TSU for 78.1 ppg. If the Tigers plan on having any success in the postseason the team will need Gerald Robinson and company to perform at a high level offensively. Robinson is currently leading the team with 17.6 ppg, and has also dished out 114 assists. Jerrell Houston is one of the more developed players in the frontcourt in the OVC, as the forward is contributing 14.0 ppg and a team-best 7.4 rpg.

The fourth-seeded Morehead State Eagles will collide with the fifth-seeded Eastern Kentucky Colonels in the final first-round matchup. The Eagles were one of the biggest surprises earlier in the year, as the team spent some time in first place. However, heading into the postseason Morehead State could be in trouble, as the squad has dropped its last four matchups, including a four- point loss to Eastern Kentucky. Morehead State was mediocre at both ends of the floor, but for this team to be successful the Eagles will need a tremendous effort out of their frontcourt tandem of Leon Buchanan and Kenneth Faried. Buchanan comes into the tournament leading the team with 15.3 ppg, and is also grabbing 6.5 rpg. As for Faried, he is a double-double machine, posting 13.5 ppg, while grabbing a league best 12.6 rpg. If there is a silver lining for the struggling Eagles it is their home record which is a sensational 11-1 on the year.

As for the Colonels, they also stumble into the postseason, having lost their final two games of the regular-season. EKU is another defensive-minded team, much like Murray State, as the team finished second only to the Racers, allowing just 65.7 ppg. Unfortunately the team is a one-trick pony offensively, and that pony is Mike Rose, who is third in the league averaging 20.2 ppg. Rose is also leading the team with 5.4 rpg, 74 assists and 50 steals. Rose has the ability to win a game by himself, but against Morehead State's gruesome twosome in the frontcourt, Rose and company could be out of luck.

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FOOTBALL BETTING : Crabtree's base deal: six years, $32 million

Football Betting

In the wake of the news that the 49ers have signed receiver Michael Crabtree after an extended holdout, there has been not a hint of the dollars to be paid to Crabtree.

And since this means that his agent hasn't leaked the numbers, it means that his agent feels no specific motivation to do so.

Possibly because his agent isn't all that thrilled to have his name on the deal.

So the numbers will come from sources other than Crabtree's agent. And we've gotten our mitts into them.

Per a league source, Crabtree has signed a six-year, $32 million contract. (The total includes guaranteed money, base salaries, and the one-time incentive based on achieving minimum playing time.)

The deal also includes $17 million in guaranteed money.

As reported elsewhere, the deal can void to five years based on performance triggers, wiping out a final year base salary of $4 million. But they won't be easily reached.

The source tells us that, in his first four seasons (including 2009), Crabtree must either qualify for two Pro Bowls, or he must qualify for one Pro Bowl in one year and he must participate in 80 percent of the offensive snaps in a separate year in which the team makes the playoffs.

In other words, if in 2010 he qualifies for the Pro Bowl and the team makes the playoffs and he participates in 80 percent of the snaps, he'll still need to make it to the Pro Bowl or achieve the 80-percent/playoffs in another season.

Since the chances of Crabtree making the Pro Bowl or participating in 80 percent of the offensive snaps this year is roughly zero percent, he'll have three years to get it done.

And it won't be easy. Frankly, he'll be hard pressed to make it to one Pro Bowl in three years with the likes of Larry Fitzgerald, Calvin Johnson, Anquan Boldin, Steve Smith, the other Steve Smith, Hakeem Nicks, DeSean Jackson, Johnny Knox, Percy Harvin, Greg Jennings, Roddy White, T.J. Houshmandzadeh in the same conference for sportsbook betting.

So, by all appearances, it's a six-year deal. And at $17 million in guaranteed money, the per-year guarantee is a tepid $2.83 million per year.

There's another problem with the deal -- it has no mid-tier incentive package. Instead, the additional $8 million that Crabtree can earn (pushing the max value to six years, $40 million) requires the kind of unrealistic, mega-star performances that no rookie is likely to ever achieve.

So while the contract paid to Packers defensive tackle B.J. Raji covers five years and pays $22.5 million, he has the ability (if he's a solid player) to make up the difference between his base deal and Crabtree's five-year, $28 million haul via the mid-tier incentive package in Raji's deal.

And unless Crabtree meets the performance thresholds necessary to void the sixth year, he'll be stuck under contract for another year at a base salary of only $4 million.

There's one other area of concern with the deal. Crabtree, per the source, received no option bonus. Instead, he has significant money tied to a fairly new device known as a "discretionary salary advance," which unlike an opition bonus is subject to forfeiture if Crabtree decides in a year or two that he wants to hold out for a better deal. (We're also told that the 49ers have included language that would make certain escalators subject to forfeiture, too.)

Meanwhile, the deal falls well short of the mark for which Crabtree and agent Eugene Parker were aiming -- the five-year, $38.25 million contract paid by the Raiders to receiver Darrius Heyward-Bey, the seventh overall pick in the draft.

Even if Crabtree successfully voids the final year, he'll make more than $2 million per year less on average than Heyward-Bey.

Thus, as we explained earlier in the day, this is a deal that Crabtree could have done in July, which would have given him a much better chance of making a contribution to the 49ers during his rookie year.

So while the final outcome can be described as win-win, the broader view suggests that it's really a lose-lose situation.

NFL Betting Lines

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